Hello, fellow traders!
As always, let’s start with some major news that might potentially affect Gold prices.
📰 Key economic updates:
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of England just hit the pause button on interest rates at their June meeting, keeping the rates at 5.25%. They called the decision “finely balanced” – because inflation hit that magic 2% mark.
Meanwhile, other central banks such as ECB, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank are already lowering rates to boost their economies..
On the flip side, the U.S. Federal Reserve is keeping everyone guessing about when they'll cut rates this year after all. Predictions say there's a 65% chance they’ll do it in September. Who knows, maybe they're just waiting for the stars to align.
What it means for Gold: There probably won’t be any immediate impact on Gold prices until there's a clear signal of rate cuts. But increased speculation about rate cuts can start driving prices up.
U.S. Building Permits
The latest building permits report showed 1.386 million building permits – lower than the forecasted 1.450 million and last month’s 1.440 million. It looks like the housing market is hitting the brakes, which might mean the economy is cooling off.
What it means for Gold: This dip in building permits could give Gold prices a nice boost as investors look for safety and expect rate cuts from the Fed.
US Jobless Claims
Last week, 238,000 people filed for unemployment – that's a bit higher than the forecast of 235,000 but better than last week’s 243,000. More people filing for unemployment isn't great news and suggests the job market isn’t as strong as we’d like.
What it means for Gold: Weak job market is another reason for the Federal Reserve to reconsider their interest rates. And if the economy’s a bit wobbly that could mean more love for Gold as a safe bet.
In the meantime, today Gold has hit a two-week high, reaching around $2350 per ounce. Let’s dive deeper into the charts and try to predict what might be waiting for Gold in the next hours and days.
📊 Let’s look at the data:
We're looking at the XAUUSD on a 3-month timeframe, with each candle representing one hour.
Here's what I'm seeing:
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