Key events to affect XAU/USD prices (June 17-21)
Every Sunday, I’m posting a weekly list of upcoming financial events and data releases. These are crucial for gold traders, as they provide insights into economic trends and global bank policies that can have a major effect on the gold market.
Hello, fellow traders!
Next week will be packed with data from major economies like China, the US, Germany, and Japan, as well as interest rate decisions from central banks. Each of these events can provide insight into economic health and investor sentiment, which in turn can move gold prices up or down.
Let's dive into the specifics and see what events we should be keeping an eye on:
Monday, June 17
China Industrial Production YoY & Retail Sales YoY: both track the year-over-year change in the output of China’s industrial output and total value of goods sold to consumers.
Why it matters for gold: Both these metrics are important indicators of China’s economic strength. If these numbers are strong, it means China's economy is humming along, which might make gold less appealing as a safe haven. Conversely, weak numbers might push investors towards gold.
Tuesday, June 18
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision: monthly decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia on where to set the benchmark interest rate.
Why it matters for gold: If they cut rates, the Aussie dollar might drop, making gold (priced in USD) relatively cheaper and potentially more attractive to Australian investors. No change or a rate hike suggests a stronger economy, which might reduce the demand for gold.
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index: a survey that measures the outlook of German institutional investors and analysts on the economy for the next six months. Essentially, it captures their optimism or pessimism about the future.
Why it matters for gold: If the index shows high optimism, it means investors feel good about the economy. This could lead them to invest in riskier assets like stocks instead of gold. Low optimism means the opposite—investors might flock to gold to protect their wealth.
USA Retail Sales MoM: measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the US. Basically, it is a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives a big chunk of the economy.
Why it matters for gold: Strong retail sales suggest consumers are spending more, which is a sign of a healthy economy. This can reduce the appeal of gold as a safe haven because investors might prefer other riskier assets. Weak sales might have the opposite effect.
Wednesday, June 19
Japan Balance of Trade: the difference between the value of Japan's exports and imports. If Japan exports more than it imports, it has a trade surplus. If it imports more than it exports, it has a trade deficit.
Why it matters for gold: A trade surplus can strengthen the Japanese yen, making gold more expensive for Japanese investors and potentially reducing demand. A trade deficit can weaken the yen, making gold cheaper and more attractive.
UK Inflation Rate YoY: measures year-over-year change in the prices of goods and services in the UK.
Why it matters for gold: If inflation is high, the Bank of England might raise interest rates to cool down the economy. This can strengthen the pound and potentially lower gold prices. Low inflation might lead to lower interest rates, weakening the pound and boosting gold prices.
Thursday, June 20
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision: the Bank of England decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate.
Why it matters for gold: A rate hike usually strengthens the pound, making gold more expensive for UK investors and potentially reducing demand. A rate cut generally weakens the pound, making gold cheaper and more attractive.
USA Building Permits Prel: a preliminary measure of the number of new residential building permits issued in the US. It's an early indicator of future construction activity.
Why it matters for gold: Building permits are a leading indicator of the housing market and broader economic activity. More permits mean a stronger housing market and a robust economy, potentially reducing the appeal of gold.
Friday, June 21
Japan Inflation Rate YoY: shows how much prices have increased or decreased compared to the same month last year.
Why it matters for gold: The inflation rate influences the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy decisions. High inflation might lead to tighter monetary policy, which can strengthen the yen and potentially lower gold prices. Low inflation might result in looser monetary policy, weakening the yen and boosting gold prices.
UK Retail Sales MoM: measures the monthly change in the total value of goods sold at the retail level in the UK. It shows whether consumers are spending more or less compared to the previous month.
Why it matters for gold: If retail sales are up, it indicates consumer confidence and economic stability, potentially leading investors to favor riskier assets over gold. Conversely, weak retail sales might signal economic troubles, increasing the attractiveness of gold.
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash: a preliminary reading of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Germany's manufacturing sector. It surveys purchasing managers about business conditions, including new orders, production, employment, and supplier deliveries. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
Why it matters for gold: A strong PMI (above 50) shows manufacturing growth, boosting confidence in the economy and reducing gold's appeal. A positive PMI can also lead to higher stock market performance, decreasing demand for gold. A weak PMI (below 50) signals economic trouble, making gold more attractive as a safe haven.
Safe trading,
and remember: All that glitters is not gold,
Joe
This is a valuable list of events. thank you