Key events to affect XAU/USD prices (Nov 04 - Nov 10)

Hello, fellow traders!

This week is packed with major global events that could shake up gold markets. From the RBA rate decision and U.S. presidential election on November 5 to Fed and BoE rate calls midweek, every day brings high-stakes data that could impact gold. Key trade and inflation reports from Australia, Germany, China, and the U.S. will also drive market sentiment. Brace for potential volatility as traders react to each new headline.

Here’s a snapshot of all the high-priority economic events for Nov 04 - 10.

Tuesday, November 05

• 🇦🇺 The RBA Interest Rate Decision: a monthly policy meeting where the RBA’s board decides whether to change, maintain, or cut the cash rate. This cash rate is the interest rate on overnight loans between banks and is the primary tool the RBA uses to control inflation and manage economic growth in Australia.

  📰 The RBA’s current cash rate is 4.35%, which has remained steady since November 2022. The recent inflation data and strong job market will likely prompt the RBA to delay rate cuts until Feb-Apr 2025.

  • 🚨 Why it matters for Gold: While the RBA's interest rate decision directly affects the AUD, its global impact on market sentiment and the U.S. dollar can influence Gold prices significantly.

    • 📈 Rate hike:

      → typically bearish for Gold. Higher rates mean increased yields on fixed-income assets like bonds, which makes them more attractive than Gold.

      → might lead to a stronger Australian dollar and a stronger U.S. dollar as investors adjust for higher yields in currencies. A stronger U.S. dollar can often push Gold down because Gold is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

      → higher rates can dampen global growth expectations, which could increase safe-haven demand for Gold, possibly balancing the initial negative impact.

    • 📉 Rate cut:

      → usually bullish for Gold prices. Lower interest rates reduce the returns on bonds and other interest-bearing assets, making Gold more appealing.

      → might weaken the Australian dollar and might result in U.S. dollar weakness. A weaker U.S. dollar can make Gold cheaper for other currency holders, potentially pushing XAUUSD higher.

      → investors may turn to Gold as a hedge against potential currency devaluation or inflation, which is often associated with an easing monetary policy.

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• 🇺🇸 The 2024 United States Presidential Election: this decision will shape U.S. policies for the next four years, covering everything from economic direction to international relations, environmental regulations, and interest rates.

  📰 Analysts expect the Fed to begin cutting rates regardless of who wins. Lower rates weaken the dollar, typically supporting higher Gold prices.

  • 🚨 Why it matters for Gold: Political events like elections can shake up markets, causing swings in the USD and influencing interest rates. Additionally, the policy stance of the new president will impact the economy, which can affect Gold in both the short and long term.

    • 🐘 Trump’s victory:

      → a Trump-led Republican sweep could lead to higher U.S. dollar strength and Treasury yields, driven by lower taxes, higher tariffs, and increased inflation expectations.

      → a strong dollar and higher yields generally pressure Gold prices

      → though Trump’s renewed “America First” stance, particularly on tariffs (like a potential 60% tariff on Chinese goods), may fuel inflation fears, which traditionally drive Gold prices higher.

    • 🫏 Harris’s victory:

      → Harris’s policies would likely mean