Holiday trading keeps Gold flat, but $2,600 could be tested soon [Weekly XAU/USD analysis + forecast]
Hello, fellow traders!
Gold had a steady but slightly up-and-down week, starting around $2,620 per ounce. Prices got an early boost when the US dollar weakened, but they dipped later on when Treasury yields rose and the dollar regained strength, pulling Gold toward $2,610.
Worries about demand added more pressure. India, one of the biggest Gold buyers, is expecting a big drop in imports this month. Still, ongoing tensions in Europe and the Middle East helped give Gold some safe-haven support.
By midweek, thinner holiday trading volumes pushed Gold back above $2,610, hitting $2,630 on Thursday. The market finished the week just under $2,630, with traders staying cautious about the Fed’s policies and continued uncertainties around the world.
In this week’s update, I’ll:
Decode the technicals: pinpoint the hidden technical clues that could signal a sudden breakout—or a ruthless selloff.
Unpack the global data: highlight the global economic numbers making waves and where they could push Gold’s price in the mid term.
Identify strategic “make-or-break” price zones
Spot the sentiment shifts: what’s brewing beneath the surface and why this matters for Gold’s future direction.
Predict what’s next for Gold: give away my short-term and mid-term calls for where XAU/USD is headed.
📊 Let’s look at the technical data
Last 3 months - 1h charts
Key takeaway:
Right now, Gold is in a corrective phase, with short-term signals tilting bearish: a bearish flag, negative PPO, CCI in negative territory, and a correction wave still in play.
Short-term bounces may happen, but a big chunk of the trade depends on how the price behaves around that 2,640–2,650 pivot. Bulls need to reclaim 2,650 and sustain above it for the medium-term uptrend to resume.
Bearish flag breakdown likely: The current bearish flag aligns with the corrective ABC Elliot Wave structure, suggesting the price might still dip lower. If the flag breaks, price could target as low as 2,560 - 2,540.
Volume is neutral: OBV is relatively elevated but has not made a strong new high since the main price peak. This suggests volume isn’t super-bullish, yet it’s not collapsing either. Could be a sign of choppy, sideways action until a real directional catalyst appears.
Momentum indicators mixed:
Oversold conditions on Stochastic RSI and CCI suggest a short-term bounce toward 2,650 is possible. A clean break above will likely open the door to retest ~2,680, ~2,700.
However, ADX and PPO favor bearish breakdown. So failure to break above 2,650 will likely result in renewed selling pressure. Look for a retest of the 2,600 handle.
Next move:
A breakout above 2,650 or below 2,580 will likely determine the next major trend.
Sideways consolidation between 2,600–2,650 is also a possibility if volatility remains low.
Last 30 days - 30min charts
Key takeaway:
The 30-min charts echo the range-bound movement from the higher timeframe. Indicators mostly sit in neutral territory, so short-term trades might be scalps or range plays until we get that bigger breakout (above 2,650) or breakdown (below 2,600). For the next days, expect price to hover between
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