Gold momentum still bullish, but short-term pullback likely [Weekly XAU/USD analysis + forecast]
Hello, fellow traders!
Gold had a pretty eventful week as the markets got back to normal after the holidays.
Prices climbed close to $2,650 early on, thanks to a weaker US Dollar, but things got a little shaky with mixed news about US trade tariffs. Strong US numbers, like the ISM Services PMI and a big jump in jobs with 256,000 added in December, briefly slowed the prices down.
Even so, the precious metal stayed strong, hitting a monthly high above $2,670 on Thursday. By the end of the week, Gold managed to hold its upward trend despite the Dollar bouncing back.
In this week’s update, I’ll:
Decode the technicals: pinpoint the hidden technical clues that could signal a sudden breakout—or a ruthless selloff.
Unpack the global data: highlight the global economic numbers making waves and where they could push Gold’s price in the mid term.
Identify strategic “make-or-break” price zones
Spot the sentiment shifts: what’s brewing beneath the surface and why this matters for Gold’s future direction.
Predict what’s next for Gold: give away my short-term and mid-term calls for where XAU/USD is headed.
📊 Let’s look at the technical data
Last 3 months - 1h charts
Key takeaway:
We've had a strong rally over the past few weeks, but some indicators suggest the price might be overextended and could need a pause or a pullback soon.
Momentum indicators are showing overbought signals, which means the rally might be losing steam.
However, the volume is still strong, which shows buyers are still active.
Bullish sentiment: Price is above key moving averages and Elliott Wave suggests potential for further upside. Overall, long-term momentum remains bullish unless price breaks below ~2,627.
Correction possible:
Multiple indicators (RSI, MFI, CCI) are overbought, suggesting Gold may need a pullback before continuing higher.
Elliot Wave shows Gold is in a corrective ABC phase, with potential for another leg down toward
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