Gold market movers: Jan 20 - 26

Every Monday, I drop a weekly rundown of key financial events and data releases that matter for the Gold market. These are the big moves and trends you need to watch to stay ahead in the XAU/USD game.

The calendar structure:

• Date

• Country → Event

• What the event is about

  • 📰 Previous readings, forecasts etc.

  • 🚨 Why it matters

    • 🔴 Negative impact on Gold

    • 🟢 Bullish impact on Gold

    • 🟡 Mixed/neutral impact

Tuesday, January 21

🇬🇧 The UK Unemployment Rate

a percentage of people in the UK who are actively looking for work are currently unemployed released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

📰 Actual: 4.4%, above forecast

• 🚨 Why it matters for Gold: The unemployment rate influences the BoE’s stance on interest rates, which have a direct impact on XAU/USD. Plus, economic conditions in major economies, including the UK, affect global risk sentiment.

  • 📈 Higher-than-expected unemployment suggests that the economy is weak. People without jobs tend to spend less, which can slow down economic growth.

    → 🟢 can push safe-haven assets like Gold up.

    → 🟢 may weaken the GBP, making Gold more affordable in domestic terms and potentially boosting local demand.

    → 🟢 may trigger speculation that central banks will keep interest rates low or cut them further, which is bullish for Gold.

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  • 📉 Lower-than-expected unemployment signals strength in the labor market, often a sign the economy is more robust than traders anticipated.

    → 🔴 might increase the chances of the BoE raising interest rates and strengthening British pound (GBP).

    → 🔴 might reduce demand for Gold, as investors feel safer putting their money into riskier assets like stocks.

    → 🟡 usually means more people have money to spend, which can lead to inflation. Since Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, this could support Gold prices.

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🇩🇪 Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

measures confidence in the economy—whether things will improve, stay the same, or get worse. It’s based on a survey of financial experts who are asked about their views on how they think the economy will perform over the next six months.

📰 Actual: 10.3, below forecast

• 🚨 Why it matters for Gold: Germany is Europe’s largest economy, so its economic health has a big impact on global markets and currency values. This ZEW index ZEW is often watched as a barometer of broader European economic sentiment.

  • 📈 Higher-than-expected index signals optimism about Germany’s economic future.

    → 🔴 Gold, being a safe-haven asset, tends to lose appeal, and XAU/USD can decline as investors shift funds into higher-yielding assets.

    → 🔴 can strengthens the EUR, possibly leading to future tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB).

    → 🟢 though, a stronger EUR might pressure the US dollar, which often results in higher XAU/USD prices due to the inverse correlation between Gold and the dollar.

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  • 📉 Lower-than-expected index means experts expect the economy to struggle, which could indicate potential trouble in the Eurozone.

    → 🟢 can lead to more demand for Gold as a safe haven.

    → 🟢 could prompt more dovish ECB policies, supporting Gold.

    → 🔴 can also lead to the weaker EUR and stronger USD, which may push Gold prices lower in XAU/USD terms.

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🇨🇦 Canada's Inflation Rate YoY

measures the percentage change in the prices of goods and services over a 12-month period. It reflects the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar and the cost of living in the country. Central banks, such as the Bank of Canada (BoC), closely monitor this data to set monetary policy, particularly interest rates.

📰 Previous: 1.9%

Forecast: 1.8%

• 🚨 Why it matters for Gold: Canada's inflation rate influences