Gold market movers: Dec 23–27
Every Monday, I drop a weekly rundown of key financial events and data releases that matter for the Gold market. These are the big moves and trends you need to watch to stay ahead in the XAU/USD game.
The calendar structure:
Date
Country → Event
What the event is about
📰 Previous readings, forecasts etc.
🚨 Why it matters
🔴 Negative impact on Gold
🟢 Bullish impact on Gold
🟡 Mixed/neutral impact
Here’s a snapshot of all the high-priority economic events for Dec 23 - 27.
Monday, December 23
🇬🇧 The UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final
provides a snapshot of economic performance; shows whether the economy is growing or contracting compared to the previous quarter. This is the last revision of the number—basically the most accurate data after they’ve double-checked everything.
📰 Previous: 0.4%
Actual: 0%
🇬🇧 The UK GDP Growth Rate YoY
a big-picture number that compares how much the UK economy grew (or shrank) this year compared to the same time last year. This longer-term measure gives a broader perspective on the UK’s economic trajectory, filtering out short-term fluctuations and seasonal factors.
📰 Previous: 0.7%
Actual: 0.9%
🚨 Why it matters for Gold: This data is a major health check for the UK economy. They tell us whether the UK economy is thriving, just getting by, or struggling—and that affects how people feel about risk, the British pound (GBP), and, indirectly, Gold prices.
📈 Positive GDP (growth) shows confidence that businesses are booming, people are spending, and jobs are stable.
→ 🔴 can lead to a “risk-on” sentiment, where investors prefer higher-yielding assets like stocks or bonds over safe-haven assets like Gold.
→ 🟢 if the pound rises relative to the U.S. dollar, it can indirectly support Gold prices, since Gold is priced in dollars. A weaker dollar makes Gold more affordable for non-dollar investors.
→ 🔴 the Bank of England may consider tightening monetary policy, which is generally negative for Gold.
📉 Negative GDP (contraction) raises concerns about slowing growth, possible job losses, or even a recession.
→ 🟢 creates uncertainty and risk-aversion, which can boost demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset.
→ 🟢 could make the BoE more likely to lower interest rates or keep them low to stimulate growth. Lower rates are bullish for Gold.
→ 🔴 the pound might depreciate significantly against the U.S. dollar and pressure Gold prices due to weaker global demand.
Tuesday, December 24
🇦🇺 Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Meeting Minutes
a detailed account of the discussions and decisions made by the Reserve Bank of Australia's policymakers during their most recent monetary policy meeting.
🚨 Why it matters for Gold: These provide clues about what the RBA thinks about inflation, employment, GDP growth as well as whether the RBA is leaning toward raising, lowering, or holding interest rates steady in the future. Australia is a major gold producer, so shifts in the Australian economy or currency can influence gold prices.
📈 Hawkish tone (pro-rate hikes) suggests the RBA is worried about inflation or sees strong economic growth.
→ 🔴 higher rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like Gold.
→ 🟢 the Australian dollar (AUD) often strengthens, which might weaken XAU/USD in relative terms and boost XAU/USD.
→ 🟡 high inflation expectations might support Gold as a safe haven asset.
📉 Dovish tone (pro-rate cuts or cautious outlook) suggests concerns about slowing growth or falling inflation.
→ 🟢 lower rates make non-yielding assets like gold more appealing.
→ 🟢 concerns about the economic outlook, such as a slowdown in growth or global uncertainties, could increase demand for Gold as a safe haven asset.
→ 🔴 likely bearish for the AUD as lower rates reduce its attractiveness for investors. If AUD weakens against USD, this might lead to lower Gold prices as the local demand lowers.
🇺🇸 The U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM
measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with manufacturers for long-lasting goods (those expected to last three years or more) compared to the previous month. Durable goods include items like cars, appliances, aircraft, and machinery.
📰 Previous: 0.2%
Forecast: -0.4%
🚨 Why it matters for Gold: This data is a key indicator of manufacturing activity and a signal of future economic performance because. It impacts the U.S. dollar, stock markets, bond yields, and Gold prices XAU/USD.
📈 Higher-than-expected orders suggest strong demand for U.S. manufactured goods, signaling economic strength.
→ 🔴 could boost the U.S. dollar because it shows businesses and consumers are confident and willing to make significant investments, which can lead to higher economic growth.
→ 🔴 reduced need for safe-haven assets and a stronger USD could put downward pressure on Gold prices.
📉 Lower-than-expected orders might indicate slowing economic activity.
→ 🟢 might prompt investors flock to Gold for safety.
→ 🟢 could weaken the USD, which would likely support higher Gold prices, as a weaker dollar makes Gold cheaper for international buyers.
→ 🟢 could lead to more aggressive rate cuts, which is bullish for Gold.
Thursday, December 26
🇺🇸 The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
shows how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. It gives a snapshot of the labor market's health—basically, how many people are losing jobs.
📰 Previous: 220K
Forecast: 218K
🚨 Why it matters for Gold: Jobless claims help predict what the Federal Reserve might do with interest rates, which is one of the biggest drivers of Gold prices. This weekly report doesn’t always move the market significantly, but when the numbers are surprising, it can create big swings in XAU/USD.
📈 Higher-than-expected claims suggests the labor market is weakening, which might be a sign that the overall economy is slowing down.
→ 🟢 leads to risk off sentiment. Investors tend to get nervous because a weak labor market can lead to lower consumer spending.
→ 🟢 the U.S. dollar typically weakens since the news could push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
→ 🟢 a weaker dollar makes Gold cheaper for buyers in other currencies, and when people worry about the economy, they often move money into safe-haven assets like Gold.
📉 Lower-than-expected claims signals a strong labor market, which is good news for economic growth.
→ 🔴 investors feel more confident, leading to higher stock prices and less demand for “safe haven” assets like Gold.
→ 🔴 the USD often strengthens because a strong labor market gives the Federal Reserve room to raise interest rates.
→ 🔴 a stronger dollar makes Gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies, and less demand for safe-haven assets puts downward pressure on Gold prices.
Friday, December 27
🇯🇵 Japan’s Tokyo CPI
measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, Japan’s capital city. It acts as an early preview of Japan's nationwide inflation trend and gives insights into how fast prices are rising or falling in Japan.
📰 Previous: 2.6%
🚨 Why it matters for Gold: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) closely monitors inflation, aiming to maintain stable prices. However, Japan has historically struggled with low inflation or even deflation, making this indicator particularly important for economic policy decisions.
📈 High inflation rate above the BoJ’s target:
→ 🔴 may prompt the BoJ to tighten monetary policy, which could include raising interest rates or reducing asset purchases.
→ 🟡 tends to strengthen the Japanese yen (JPY), as higher interest rates attract more capital inflows, and create a risk-on environment.
→ 🟢 a stronger yen can weaken USD and support higher Gold prices.
→ 🟢 if inflation is driven by rising import costs (such as oil), it could contribute to broader global inflationary pressures. In this case, Gold may become more attractive as a hedge against inflation, pushing prices higher.
📉 Low inflation:
→ 🟡 the BoJ is likely to continue its loose monetary policy, which may involve maintaining negative interest rates or increasing asset purchases.
→ 🔴 might be negative for global Gold prices in USD terms due to JPY weakening and USD strengthening.
→ 🟢 positive for Gold demand if inflation fears or instability rise.
→ 🔴 could weaken the yen, as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. This can lead to stronger USD and downward pressure on XAU/USD, as Gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
🇯🇵 Japan’s Retail Sales MoM
measures the percentage change in the total value of goods sold by retailers in Japan compared to the previous month. It’s a key measure of consumer spending, which is a significant part of the economy.
📰 Previous: 0.1%
🚨 Why it matters for Gold: Retail sales data reflects the health of Japan’s domestic economy and consumer confidence. It indirectly impacts the Japanese yen (JPY), which can influence the U.S. dollar (USD) and, in turn, gold prices (XAU/USD).
📈 Stronger-than-expected sales indicates that consumers are spending more, which can signal a growing economy.
→ 🔴 might reduce the demand for Gold, as investors tend to favor riskier assets like stocks during periods of economic strength, potentially leading to lower XAU/USD prices.
→ 🟢 can fuel inflation concerns, and Gold might grow as a hedge.
→ 🔴 could raise concerns about BoJ rate hikes and put downward pressure on Gold.
→ 🟡 could boost the yen.
→ 🔴 Gold gets more expensive for Japanese buyers, dampening domestic demand.
→ 🟢 if strong yen weakens the USD, XAU/USD prices will get a support.
📉 Weaker-than-expected sales can signal economic slowing or recession concerns.
→ 🟢 Gold demand as a safe haven might increase.
→ 🟢 can lead to rate cuts to stimulate the economy, which is generally bullish for Gold.
→ 🟡 yen may weaken.
→ 🔴 weak yen might lead to a stronger USD and push XAU/USD lower.
→ 🟢 weak yen also makes Gold cheaper for local buyers and can boost its demand.
Safe trading,
and remember: All that glitters is not Gold,
Joe